ECM Market Recap
US ECM Offer to Year-end Returns Outperform Broader Market
With global equity markets declining more than 20% and the S&P down 19.4% in 2022, its worst decline since the 2008 financial crisis, US ECM faced unprecedented headwinds resulting in suppressed issuance totaling $107.0B (excluding SPACs). This marked the first annual decrease in gross proceeds since 2015, as well as the least amount of capital raised since 2006. In addition to a 60.9% reduction in total transaction volume, median IPO size fell 90.8% to just $15.9M while median follow-on size fell 18.8% to $91.7M. Despite conditions, dollar-weighted offer to year-end returns across all offering types fared better than the broader market at (11.5%) while dollar-weighted offer to one day returns represented a bright spot in an otherwise challenging year at 6.7%. Against a very challenging market backdrop, Healthcare issuance accounted for over 40% of offering activity and the only sector to register positive offer to year end returns.
2022 Trends and Highlights
Including Unregistered Block activity tracked by CMG, total capital raised exceeded $107B via 598 offerings (excluding SPACs)
IPOs raised $8.8B in 101 offerings representing an 94.4% decrease in capital raised vs 2021, while follow-on issuance raised $98.2B in 497 offerings representing a 66.7% decrease over the prior year
86 SPACs priced raising $13.4B representing a 91.7% decline from the record set in the prior year where 613 SPACS accounted for $162.5B in proceeds
Healthcare overtook Technology as the most active sector in 2022 raising $28.1B in proceeds accounting for 26.3% of total capital raised via 225 offerings and representing 37.7% of total activity, followed by Real Estate $13.6B (12.7% of total capital) and Utilities $12.8B (12.0% of total capital)
On a dollar-weighted basis, IPOs with a deal size >$100M returned 12.5% from offer to first day close (vs. a mean of 14.1%) and returned 12.3% from offer to year end (vs. a mean of 17.1%)
On a dollar-weighted basis, registered follow-ons returned 2.1% from offer to first day close (vs. a mean of (2.8%)) and returned (9.1%) from offer to year end (vs. a mean of (17.4%))
Healthcare provided the strongest dollar-weighted offer to year-end return across all offering types with 3.2% and marked the only sector with positive year-end returns
Total fees paid to the street decreased 80.5% to $3.0B (excluding SPACs)
2021 vs. 2022 Dollar-weighted One-day Return
IPOs24.1% vs. 67.0% (IPOs >$100M - 24.1% vs 12.6%)
Marketed FOs2.9% vs. 2.8%
Overnight FOs5.1% vs. 3.4%
Registered Blocks0.6% vs. 0.1%
Unregistered Blocks0.5% vs. (0.8%)
Largest Dollar-weighted Alpha Contributors of 2022 with Mean Deal Size >$100M: 1 Day
Mobileye Global Inc.
10/25/22$990.2M IPO +38.0%
10/25/22$690.0M Marketed FO +27.5%
Karuna Therapeutics, Inc.
8/09/22$862.5M Marketed FO +20.4%
Largest Dollar-weighted Alpha Contributors of 2022 with Mean Deal Size >$100M: To Current (as of year-end)
Mobileye Global Inc.
10/25/22$990.2M IPO +55.8%
10/25/22$690.0M Marketed FO +47.5%
3/09/22$865.4M Unregistered Block +26.3%
Discount Trends (Median File to Offer): 2021 vs. 2022
Marketed FOs(11.8%) vs. (18.8%)
Overnight FOs(11.5%) vs. (12.1%) / Median % discount to VWAP of: (11.7%) vs. (12.1%)
Registered Blocks(4.3%)vs. (5.1%) / Median % discount to VWAP of: (4.4%) vs (4.7%)
Unregistered Blocks(2.5%)vs. (4.2%) / Median % discount to VWAP of: (3.1%) vs. (4.1%)
IPO Vs. Follow-On Composition as a % of Proceeds Raised: 2021 vs. 2022
IPOs35.0% vs. 8.2%
FOs65.0% vs. 91.8%
Follow-On Composition as a % of Proceeds Raised: 2021 vs. 2022
Marketed FOs42.3% vs. 30.4%
Overnight FOs11.2% vs. 18.6%
Registered Blocks24.6% vs. 24.1%
Unregistered Blocks21.9% vs. 26.9%
On behalf of the entire team at CMG, we want to thank you for your continued partnership and wish you a healthy and prosperous 2023!
This information provided is for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. You should not act or refrain from acting on the basis of any of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. CMG shall have no liability whatsoever for your use of this information.
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