The Focus
ECM issuance ebbs and flows throughout the year; traditionally, August is considered a slow month when a lot of ECM participants in the US and Western Europe take their summer holidays. Is this actually borne out in a drop in capital raisings? And with the growth of the mega-IPOs in the pipeline, can we expect the same this year?
The Graph
The Breakdown
Looking at CMG data across the last decade, 2026 has seen a higher than average monthly backlog of deals, both by number of deals and by expected capital, filed. Historically, July is the slowest month on average for deals to be filed, given August is in turn the slowest month for deals to be priced, this translates to the traditional summer slowdown. Quarterly earnings seasons also drive this cyclicality, with companies less likely to raise capital before releasing earnings reports. However, in 2026, July has already beaten the average deal backlog with $27B filed so far, hot on the heels of SK Hynix’s bumper listing in New York.
Another consideration for this summer is how many shares could come onto the market through lock-up expiries. Last year over the 3 months of summer, roughly $104B of stock came out of lock-up, this year it will be $162B. This isn’t even including SpaceX, which alone could release approx. 1.7 billion shares onto the market if all its upcoming lock-up conditions are triggered.
The Take
“With big names swirling for IPOs alongside a chunk of lock-up expiries coming due, there’s a lot of stock for the market to absorb and taking August off might not be as sensible as previous years.”
– Alex Kaplan, Sellside Director, CMG
There’s quite the pipeline for the rest of 2026, beyond the big AI names everyone knows, there’s consequential deals posited across the globe. India is expected to see its largest IPO ever with Jio Platforms filing to raise around $4B later this year, Italian insurer Unipol has launched a $2.8B rights issue and Shanghai’s MetaX Integrated Circuits is already eyeing up a Hong Kong listing. With July off to a flying start, it would not be a surprise if this summer sees less of a slowdown than usual and if not, it would be wise to get your R&R in before September and onwards gets busy.
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